Climate scientists and operational forecasters are closely monitoring the Pacific Ocean following projections from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, a forecasting system that integrates outputs from multiple climate models to improve reliability. The latest projections indicate that sea surface temperatures in parts of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific could rise to levels associated with some of the strongest El Niño events recorded.
For the November to January 2027 period, model outputs suggest sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2 degrees Celsius across large sections of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. In some regions, warming could surpass 5 degrees Celsius, a level that, if realised, would place the event among the most intense El Niño episodes ever observed.
Scientists define a strong El Niño when temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region rise between 1.5 degrees Celsius and 1.9 degrees Celsius above average, while anomalies above 2 degrees Celsius are classified as very strong events. The current projections therefore indicate the possibility of an exceptionally intense climate episode, though scientists emphasise that long-range forecasts remain uncertain.
According to Anjal Prakash, public policy professor at FLAME University and an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change author, the North American Multi-Model Ensemble provides an early signal rather than a definitive prediction. He noted that combining multiple climate models reduces individual model bias and strengthens the overall picture of large-scale climate trends. However, he cautioned that forecast reliability declines significantly beyond a few months due to internal climate variability and uncertainties in ocean atmosphere interactions.
Prakash stated that while a consistent warming signal across the central and eastern Pacific increases confidence in a developing El Niño, the projections should be treated as an early warning requiring preparedness across agriculture, water resources, fisheries, and disaster management systems.
Earth system scientist and former University of Maryland and Indian Institute of Technology Bombay professor Raghu Murtugudde stated that no conclusion about a super El Niño can be made at this stage. However, he added that when multiple models converge on a strong warming scenario, it becomes a signal that must be closely monitored.
Operational forecasts also indicate strengthening Pacific warming. Mahesh Palawat, Vice President for Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, stated that El Niño conditions are likely to intensify in the coming months. He reported that sea surface temperature anomalies in key parts of the equatorial Pacific are already approaching 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal, a threshold typically associated with strong El Niño events.
Palawat added that the Niño 3.4 region, a key indicator of El Niño strength, will be closely observed in the coming months to determine whether the warming consolidates into a stronger event. He noted that global meteorological agencies, including the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, are already tracking rising probabilities of El Niño development in the tropical Pacific.
El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that alters global atmospheric circulation and weather patterns. In India, strong El Niño years have historically been linked to weaker monsoons, extended dry periods, and increased heat stress, although the relationship is not always direct or uniform.
Roxy Mathew Koll, climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, stated that the climate system is now operating on a significantly warmer baseline than in previous decades. He noted that naturally occurring warming events such as El Niño now interact with ongoing climate change, increasing the likelihood of extreme rainfall, heat waves, and marine heat stress.
Raghu Murtugudde further stated that the developing El Niño is expected to strengthen through late 2026, potentially peaking around January to February 2027, with effects likely persisting into mid 2027. He added that warming impacts often extend beyond the active phase of the event.
He explained that following the 2023 El Niño, global temperatures continued to rise into 2024 as heat stored in the oceans was released into the atmosphere. He warned that a similar pattern could again keep global temperatures elevated as oceanic heat is transferred to the atmosphere even after the event weakens.
Historically, strong El Niño events have contributed to severe drought and wildfire conditions in Australia and Southeast Asia, heavier rainfall in parts of western South America, and widespread marine heat waves, coral bleaching, and disruption of fisheries.
For India, experts emphasise that the timing and distribution of rainfall are as critical as total seasonal accumulation. June rainfall typically accounts for 10 to 15 percent of India’s total monsoon precipitation. Current rainfall levels are approximately 8 percent below normal, but meteorologists note that the core monsoon months of July and August account for the majority of seasonal rainfall and can still compensate for early deficits.
Murtugudde stated that it is premature to interpret early June rainfall shortfalls as indicative of the full monsoon outcome. He emphasised that a strengthening monsoon circulation and improved moisture transport could recover much of the early deficit.
He further noted that rainfall distribution remains the most critical factor, as uneven rainfall timing, concentrated heavy precipitation events, or prolonged dry spells during key agricultural stages can cause significant disruption even when seasonal totals appear normal.
Meteorologists stress that ocean and atmosphere conditions remain subject to change in the coming months. However, the latest model consensus suggests that the Pacific Ocean may be entering a period of heightened climatic volatility, with significant implications for global monsoon systems, food security, water availability, and extreme weather risk.
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